Tuesday, April 21, 2009

Piracy & Somalia Revisited

There are some in the West who believe that the political situation in Somalia can be solved through an international commission doing this or that. There have been fourteen such initiatives since 1991. Care to guess how many of them have achieved ANYTHING positive? Another United Nations initiative seems to be as neutered at the outset as the UN is itself.

The Horn of Africa is a strategic choke point for shipping transit and surrendering the territory to radical islamist organizations (including al Qaeda) should be avoided. At present Somalia is governed by a weak Islamic government with little control or legitimacy outside the capitol. The reality is and has been that clans rule the country on a regional basis. Calling Somalia a country is a term of art, not reflected by the reality on the ground.

Political choices: The Pirates (anti-al Qaeda) or the al Shaabab (pro-al Qaeda).  Not much of a choice.

Recommendations for the US - 
  • Keep an Amphibious Ready Group in the straits between Yemen and Somalia to protect US interests and to support our NATO allies as required. 
  • Avoid the temptation to engage the Somali clans on the ground (either the pirates or al-Qaeda win) because there is absolutely no winning strategy there. Somalia is one of those hell holes that's not worth one American life.
  • Establish a proactive stance at sea where Somali pirate ships are engaged at will by US forces. (more or less shoot first and ask questions later at sea) The presence of armed Somali civilian craft in the area constitute a clear and present danger to shipping.


aleksandrova elisaveta said...

Hi,Lary again !
Now in Bulgaria captures for ransoms are too modern.-It's of course is a little bit different from your theme,but there the russian mafia captures own parthers from bulgarian mafia to take back washed money.-So,do you think it's form of terror -also linked to al Quada or not.--I'm thinking that the reply is positive,althought we have members of NATO yet in 4 years.--

aleksandrova-aleksandrovart.blogspot.com said...

Everybody bulgarian know that theese oligarh captures are patronized by the goverment and BG-policy.--What you think for example.

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